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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="en"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">akusherstvo</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="en">Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproduction</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Акушерство, Гинекология и Репродукция</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2313-7347</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2500-3194</issn><publisher><publisher-name>IRBIS LLC</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17749/2313-7347/ob.gyn.rep.2022.328</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">akusherstvo-1517</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ОRIGINAL ARTICLES</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Predicting fetal growth retardation: mathematical modeling</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Прогнозирование задержки роста плода: математическое моделирование</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2797-1926</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кудрявцева</surname><given-names>Е. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kudryavtseva</surname><given-names>E. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Кудрявцева Елена Владимировна – д.м.н., доцент кафедры акушерства и гинекологии</p><p>620219 Екатеринбург, ул. Репина, д. 3</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Elena V. Kudryavtseva – MD, Dr Sci Med, Associate Professor, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology</p><p>3 Repin Str., Еkaterinburg 620219</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">elenavladpopova@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8640-8418</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ковалев</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kovalev</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Ковалев Владислав Викторович – д.м.н., профессор, зав. кафедрой акушерства и гинекологии, трансфузиологии</p><p>620219 Екатеринбург, ул. Репина, д. 3</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vladislav V. Kovalev – MD, Dr Sci Med, Professor, Head of the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Transfusiology</p><p>3 Repin Str., Еkaterinburg 620219</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1124-1160</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Дектярев</surname><given-names>А. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Dektyarev</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Дектярев Андрей Александрович – врач ультразвуковой диагностики</p><p>620014 Екатеринбург, ул. Бориса Ельцина, д. 3</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Andrey A. Dectuarev – MD, Doctor of Ultrasound Diagnostics</p><p>3 Boris Eltsin Str., Ekaterinburg 620014</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9813-2823</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Баранов</surname><given-names>И. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Baranov</surname><given-names>I. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Баранов Игорь Иванович – д.м.н., профессор, зав. отделом научно-образовательных программ департамента организации научной деятельности</p><p>117997 Москва, ул. академика Опарина, д. 4</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Igor I. Baranov – MD, Dr Sci Med, Professor, Head of the Department of of Scientific and Educational Programs</p><p>4 Academika Oparina Str., Moscow 117997</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФГБОУ ВО «Уральский государственный медицинский университет» Министерства здравоохранения Российской Федерации</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Ural State Medical University, Health Ministry of Russian Federation</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ООО «Клинический институт репродуктивной медицины»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Clinical Institute of Reproductive Medicine</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФГБУ «Национальный медицинский исследовательский центр акушерства, гинекологии и перинатологии имени академика В.И. Кулакова» Министерства здравоохранения Российской Федерации</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Kulakov National Medical Research Center for Obstetrics, Gynecology and Perinatology, Health Ministry of Russian Federation</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2022</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>14</day><month>01</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>16</volume><issue>6</issue><fpage>664</fpage><lpage>675</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Kudryavtseva E.V., Kovalev V.V., Dektyarev A.A., Baranov I.I., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Кудрявцева Е.В., Ковалев В.В., Дектярев А.А., Баранов И.И.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Kudryavtseva E.V., Kovalev V.V., Dektyarev A.A., Baranov I.I.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.gynecology.su/jour/article/view/1517">https://www.gynecology.su/jour/article/view/1517</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Introduction</title><p>Introduction. Annually, more than 13 million neonates are born with fetal growth retardation (FGR) worldwide. FGR increases prenatal mortality and morbidity. Due to no effective treatments for FGR are available, its prevention and prognosis are of extreme relevance.</p></sec><sec><title>Aim</title><p>Aim: development of prognostic clinical and anamnestic mathematical model for assessing a risk of developing FGR during pregnancy.</p></sec><sec><title>Materials and Methods</title><p>Materials and Methods. A prospective, controlled, open, continuous study was performed. The main group (1) included 75 patients who had FGR during pregnancy; the control group (2) consisted of 414 women with favorable pregnancy outcome. All subjects underwent examination, including collecting medical history, a complex of prenatal diagnostics in the first trimester of pregnancy – ultrasound, Doppler uterine arteries, serum level of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), free beta-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG), placental growth factor (PlGF), and non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT).</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Results. To determine the relative contribution of each individual trait to the formation of FGR risk and develop a prognostic index, a discriminant analysis was carried out, on the basis of which a prognostic F-index was developed. The formula for calculating the F-index includes the age of pregnant woman, obstetric history data, method of conception, recorded nicotine addiction in pregnancy, detected uterine fibroids, body mass index, biochemical parameters (PAPP-A, β-hCG, PlGF), nuchal translucency of the fetus, the pulsation index of the uterine artery, the level of the fetal fraction and fetal gender (determined during NIPT). The parameters of sensitivity and specificity of the FGR prognosis were 90.1 and 82.18 % respectively, the method effectiveness was 83.97 %.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>Conclusion. The method developed for predicting FGR can be used in clinical practice to form risk groups for FGR development and choose tactics for pregnancy management.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="ru"><sec><title>Введение</title><p>Введение. В мире ежегодно рождается более 13 млн младенцев с задержкой роста плода (ЗРП), которая увеличивает показатели фето-инфантильной заболеваемости и смертности. Поскольку эффективных медикаментозных методов лечения ЗРП не существует, крайне актуальными являются профилактика и прогнозирование этого состояния.</p></sec><sec><title>Цель</title><p>Цель: разработка прогностической клинико-анамнестической математической модели для оценки риска развития ЗРП в течение беременности.</p></sec><sec><title>Материалы и методы</title><p>Материалы и методы. Проведено ретроспективное сравнительное открытое исследование. В основную группу (группа 1) были включены 75 пациенток, у которых в течение беременности была выявлена ЗРП; контрольная группа (группа 2) состояла из 414 женщин с благополучным исходом беременности. Всем беременным было проведено обследование, включающее сбор анамнеза, комплекс пренатальной диагностики в I триместре беременности – ультразвуковое исследование, доплерометрию маточных артерий, определение содержания ассоциированного с беременностью протеина-А плазмы (англ. pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A, РАРР-А), свободной бета-субъединицы хорионического гонадотропина человека (β-ХГЧ), плацентарного фактора роста (англ. placental growth factor, PlGF), проведение неинвазивного пренатального теста (НИПТ).</p></sec><sec><title>Результаты</title><p>Результаты. Для определения относительного вклада каждого отдельного признака в формирование риска ЗРП и разработки прогностического индекса был проведен дискриминантный анализ, на основании которого был разработан прогностический индекс F. Формула для расчета индекса F включает: возраст беременной; данные акушерского анамнеза; способ зачатия; наличие у беременной никотиновой зависимости, миомы матки; индекс массы тела; биохимические показатели (РАРР-А, β-ХГЧ, PlGF); толщину воротникового пространства плода; пульсационный индекс маточной артерии; уровень фетальной фракции и пол плода (определяются при проведении НИПТ). Показатели чувствительности и специфичности прогноза ЗРП составили соответственно 90,1 и 82,18 %, эффективность способа – 83,97 %.</p></sec><sec><title>Заключение</title><p>Заключение. Разработанный способ прогнозирования ЗРП может быть использован в клинической практике для формирования групп риска по развитию ЗРП и для выбора тактики ведения беременности.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>задержка роста плода</kwd><kwd>ЗРП</kwd><kwd>малый для гестационного возраста плод</kwd><kwd>пренатальный скрининг</kwd><kwd>неинвазивный пренатальный тест</kwd><kwd>НИПТ</kwd><kwd>преэклампсия</kwd><kwd>ПЭ</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>fetal growth retardation</kwd><kwd>FGR</kwd><kwd>small-for-gestational-age</kwd><kwd>prenatal screening</kwd><kwd>non-invasive prenatal test</kwd><kwd>NIPT</kwd><kwd>preeclampsia</kwd><kwd>РЕ</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Smith G.C.S. Universal screening for foetal growth restriction. 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